COVID-19 was and is a game changer in the FMCG market. The global pandemic has a profound impact on the way people shop – and we can see that this development in buying behaviors will partly remain, even after COVID-19.
The data for the first phase of the lockdowns (survey period: early March to early April) show significantly different developments in different countries in Europe, but a common pattern:
For example, in Poland with a high market share for Discounters (42%) and only 13% for Supermarkets, data shows a significant move towards Supermarkets what could be attributed to their proximity in the country.
The fact that proximity is a key factor is strengthened by a contrasting example: in Russia and Italy, Discounters in the same period recorded increases in value share. In both countries, Discounters are characterized by their convenient locations.
Our data from May 2020 show that buyers in many countries stick to their change in buying behavior.
For example, 59% of buyers from 17 European countries surveyed said that they would continue to choose stores that are easily or quickly reached or that are nearby (35% currently do so).
This development is particularly significant in some countries: In Germany, for example, the proportion of shoppers who currently choose stores for their proximity or easy access is as low as 19% (average for the 17 EU countries: 35%).
However, 63% of the shoppers surveyed in Germany (EU 17 average: 59%) answer that proximity or easy access will be more relevant for their shopping behavior even after COVID-19.
However, proximity is a parameter that Discounters will find difficult to change or produce. But Discounters should definitely take this development into account in their strategic planning.
Discounters should also carefully analyze the trend towards one-stop-shopping. When asked about their shopping behavior in the future, shoppers in countries like the Czech Republic, Austria and Germany see a significant change in their shopping habits.
For example, 30% of Austrian shoppers surveyed said that they currently try to buy everything they need in one store (May 2020). And 50% of those surveyed said that they would continue this shopping behavior in "normal" times.
Discounter should also carefully monitor a more surprising development in the current COVID-19 crisis: During the past – economic – crises, Discounters, in particular, were able to convince through their low-price strategy. The current data do not show a clear picture here. Discounters are neither among the winners nor the losers. However, as long as there is uncertainty on the development of unemployment and the potential further measures for social distancing, it is important to examine to what extent the established consumer behavior patterns will continue.
Less surprising though, is that we found the COVID-19 crisis – with regards to both health risks and economic risks – to be perceived very differently in the countries surveyed. In Germany, the perceived economic risk is among the lowest of all countries surveyed in May 2020, and the trust in the health system is among the highest.
As a result, the proportion of buyers who perceive themselves as "affected" (unemployed or strong fear to lose their job) is relatively low at 12%.
The number of shoppers in Italy who perceive themselves as affected is 22%. Italian shoppers notice a very high perceived economic risk and a mid-range health risk. The highest proportion of "affected" at 43% can be found in Ukraine. The buyers surveyed in this country rated their health risk as well as their economic risks as the highest of all countries in Europe.
To summarize: Discounters should carefully analyze the game changing developments in buying behavior and adjust their strategy to this “new normal”.